2020 Election – the Forecast Landscape

This Spotlight gathers leading forecasts for the 2020 election by statisticians and political scientists, explaining their reasoning and noting changes in their predictions. We intend to provide updates to this note in the coming weeks if these forecasters change their opinion on certain states or even the entire race. Unsurprisingly (nearly) all are optimistic right now about Joe Biden’s chances of winning the presidency and give the Democrats competitive odds for a slim Senate majority. However, with the sudden need to fill a Supreme Court vacancy and the first debate less than a week away there is no shortage of flashpoints that could alter the race.